Furniture
and forest exports face cloudy future
The
furniture and forest segment of the Vietnam economy has experienced solid
growth over the past few years and brighter days lie ahead, says the Vietnam
Timber and Forest Product Association.
In
2015, exports jumped by 10.7% to US$6.9 billion, Nguyen Ton Quyen, chair of
the association, told a recent conference, adding that he optimistically
expects the segment to see annual growth of 15-20% over the next few years.
Mr Quyen
said that new free trade pacts such as the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement
and the Trans pacific Partnership (TPP) will help boost overseas consignments
by slashing tariffs.
However, he
failed to support his rather overly sanguine predictions with any hard facts
or well-grounded logical reasoning, say many industry analysts.
As it
currently stands, most analysts are in general agreement that the growth of
the furniture industry in Vietnam is severely limited by the scarcity of raw
materials, which must be imported from other countries, principally China.
As long as
the industry continues to be dependent on Chinese raw materials, then neither
exports to the EU or the US under either of the aforementioned trade pacts
would qualify for the reduced tariffs Mr Quyen referred to.
Nor did he
address the fact that with both current US presidential nominees opposed to
the trade deal, ratification of the TPP appears highly unlikely at this
time. Clearly there are no realistic prospects for passage or
implementation any time soon.
Lastly, even
in markets where import tariffs are low or non-existent, non-tariff barriers
(NTBs) can be a major impediment to trade and Mr Quyen failed to address how
the segment plans to address these issues.
This is
especially true as it relates to Vietnam exports of furniture and forest products
to the EU, say analysts, which will undoubtedly face significant NTBs
following implementation of the Vietnam-EU free trade pact.
Many of
these barriers can easily be readily identified, but it is a great deal more
difficult to calculate their precise impact on export returns and what their
removal might mean for the furniture and forest industry.
NTBs are
defined as government measures, other than tariffs, that distort
international trade. Typically, they either protect domestically produced
products from the full weight of foreign competition or artificially
stimulate exports of those products.
They may
include quantitative restrictions, administrative procedures, phytosanitary
and technical regulations and standards, price control measures, subsidies,
forest management certification and product labelling, and illegal
activities.
According to
the World Trade Organisation the number of reported NTBs has been steadily
growing worldwide.
For the
first nine months of 2016, Vietnam exports of furniture and forest products
have stayed consistent with the prior year pace having reached US$4.9
billion, roughly the same figure as exports for the same corresponding
nine-month period in 2015.
As it
stands, the country is now the fourth largest wooden furniture and forest
product exporter around the globe, trailing China, Germany and Italy in
descending order of magnitude from first to third biggest.
VOV
|
Thứ Ba, 11 tháng 10, 2016
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